Commentary on the 2020 US Presidential Election

November 01, 2020

I predict Biden will win the election. Nothing is certain, of course, but it's pretty clear that Trump and the republican establishment are worried, with their attempts to suppress votes any way they can.

If I were still living in the US, I would have voted for Bernie in the democratic primaries - not that it would have done any good. It seemed like no matter what, Biden was going to be nominated. The democratic establishment went to great lengths to protect and push Biden's nomination forward. Consider that Trump was impeached not because his regime kidnapped infants and children and tortured asylum seekers, but because he tried to smear Joe Biden.

But Biden is just a status-quo candidate for the corporatist machine that rules Washington. I suspect that wall street and the corporate lobbyists can't wait to see him in office. Trump proved impossible to control, always saying the quiet part out loud. His corruption was on full display. Biden is a savvy politician, and won't make such mistakes.

And while Trump is quite literally insane (I don't see how anyone can listen to Trump talk for even just a few minutes and not see that he is off his rocker), I don't see much changing with Biden. If anything, he'll usher in four years of "normalcy", which really means perpetuating wealth disparity in the US. Expect more corporate bailouts, and little change for the working class. I don't expect any federal prosecution of Trump, as deserving as he is of that fate. The US didn't prosecute any former presidents from Nixon to the present day, I don't expect them to start now.

I don't expect a President Biden to usher in medicare-for-all, despite the pandemic showing an urgent need to get health care away from the private insurance behemoth and de-couple it from people's employers. I don't expect him to support any increase in labor rights, or to increase taxes on the wealthy in any meaningful way.

I do expect a President Biden to handle the pandemic far better than Trump has (which is to say, not at all, so not really a high bar), but in the service of the US consumer economy, not for any humanitarian concern.

From the perspective of Canada, he will provide some stability in terms of trade and immigration, and won't declare Canada a national security threat, so most Canadians will welcome a Biden presidency.

And here is the big one - I don't expect a President Biden to make any meaningful change towards addressing climate change. I think he'll revert most of the de-regulation enacted during the four years that Trump played President, and he will pay lip-service to "green" initiatives, none of which will do anything long-term to help curb global warming. Subsidies to oil companies will continue, and US consumption of fossil fuels will increase again once the pandemic is under control. The last US president to mention the possibility of Americans making sacrifices for the environment was Carter, and you can see how well that worked out for him.

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